Track Record — OddVora's Complete Monthly Performance History Since Launch Updated Mar 2026

Trend: Banker win rate has improved each quarter since launch as model calibration matured. The Q4 2024 dip (87.1%) reflects early model conservatism — the confidence threshold was raised from 80% to 85% in December 2024, improving selectivity and win rate from Q1 2025 onwards.

Trend: Sure Wins is OddVora's most consistent market — positive in 18 of 19 months. The single negative month (Nov 2024) coincided with a cluster of model-underestimated upset results in La Liga and Serie A mid-table fixtures. The model was recalibrated with a stricter home/away win rate floor in December 2024.

Trend: BTTS is our highest-volume market (912 all-time tips). Win rate has improved slightly season-on-season (71.4% → 72.9%) as the dual-scoring-rate filter has been tightened. GG consistently outperforms NG — a structural characteristic of the market, not a model deficiency.

Trend: 1X2 is our highest-volume market with the largest absolute profit (+4,002u all-time). Home win leads on win rate (71.8%), away win leads on yield per winning tip (avg odds 2.18 vs 1.71 for home wins). Draw tips remain the hardest to call — 59.8% all-time, 8 draws published per month on average.

Trend: Correct Score is our highest-yield but highest-variance market — profitable in 13 of 19 months (68%). The six losing months each show negative yield of −40% to −80%, consistent with statistical expectation at a 31% win rate. The all-time +94.2% yield over 1,008 tips is the most robust indicator of model edge — the sample size is sufficiently large to confirm genuine positive expected value.

Trend: O/U win rate decreases predictably with the goals line — structurally expected. O/U 4.5 at 51.4% all-time is the thinnest edge on the card; recommend treating 4.5 tips as speculative even at stated model confidence. O/U 1.5 (80.2%) is the most reliable O/U line we publish.

Trend: The best single acca return was a March 2025 5-fold at 38.20x — combining Liverpool 1, Bayern 1, Atletico 1, City GG and Inter O2.5. All-time 3-fold win rate of 41.2% is the most reliable acca format and the recommended entry point for conservative acca staking.

Trend: The edge-band correlation is one of OddVora's most important validating metrics — it confirms that higher model edge genuinely predicts higher win rate over a large sample (726 tips). Tips below 15pt edge underperform expectation (43.1%) — the hot picks page will apply a stricter 15pt minimum edge floor from April 2026.

Trend: Long shots are our second-highest-yield market at +61.4% all-time. The 19.1% win rate across 692 tips confirms genuine model edge at scale — the law of large numbers applies cleanly here. 12.00+ selections (10.8% win rate) remain marginally EV+ but are the most volatile tier. Reviewed quarterly.

Month note: March 2026 is in progress (27 of 31 days complete). Correct Score is carrying the month on yield — 21 wins from 68 tips including two at 7.50+ in a single week. Banker has gone 7-for-7 since the Arsenal vs Newcastle loss on 19 March. On track to be the highest-yield month since launch if the final 4 days hold.

February 2026 — Best month ever on yield (+22.6%) and CS yield (+318%). A cluster of correct score wins in the UCL round of 16 — three 2-leg fixtures all produced the tipped scoreline including a 1–0 at the Bernabéu (8.00) and a 2–1 at San Siro (7.50). The CS model's H2H repetition premium fired correctly on all three. Banker went 26-for-28 (92.9%). Long shots produced 4 wins from 22 (18.2%). Overall the highest single-month yield since launch.

January 2026 — Solid across-the-board month. 1X2 led on yield (+22.1%) driven by a strong run of away win tips in La Liga mid-table fixtures — the model identified bookmaker overpricing on home advantage in five consecutive fixtures and all five landed. Sure Wins win rate dipped slightly to 81% (vs 84% 30d average) — three consecutive losses in PL early-month fixtures before recovering strongly. All markets closed the month positive.

December 2025 — Boxing Day cluster drove accumulator yield. The packed Boxing Day and New Year fixture schedule (PL, Bundesliga, La Liga all active in late December) produced a run of seven consecutive winning accas — a statistically rare but expected cluster. Acca yield for the month hit +74%. Banker continued its recovery from the November dip with 27W-2L (93.1%).

November 2025 — Recovery month after the Nov 2024 anomaly. Hot picks led (+31%) driven by several strongly-edged away win picks that the market continued to underprice. The model's La Liga away-win premium — identified as a structural niche in January 2025 — continued to fire reliably. All markets positive; Sure Wins at 82% WR was below the 84% 30-day average but returned to standard range by month end.

Post-mortem: November 2024 was our only losing month. Three factors converged: (1) Sure Wins fell to 74.1% — below its 84% average — due to a cluster of mid-table Serie A and La Liga upsets in weeks 2–3. (2) Correct Score hit a 19.4% win rate vs 31% average — statistically plausible but unlucky timing. (3) Long Shots at 8.3% was the worst single-market month on record. BTTS was the only market in profit (+4.1%). The model was recalibrated in December 2024 with tighter sure win entry criteria, stricter CS edge minimums and a higher long shot publication threshold. Every subsequent month has been positive.

October 2025 — Long shots delivered the month's headline. Long shots hit +88% yield — driven by three consecutive upset wins in the UCL group stage (all backed at 7.00–9.50) including a Porto away win at Juventus (8.50) and a Celtic draw at Real Madrid (12.00 — our biggest long shot return in a single month). Overall yield of +14.8% was ahead of the rolling average.

September 2024 — OddVora launch month. We launched on 1 September 2024 with all core markets active from day one. 198 tips in the first month — lower volume as the tip selection pipeline was calibrated. 1X2 was the strongest launch market (+16.2%). Banker launched with an 87.1% win rate (below the subsequent 90%+ average) — the confidence threshold was set at 80% initially and raised to 85% in December 2024 after reviewing the Nov 2024 loss month. The +13.8% launch yield was a strong start by any benchmark.